Lok Sabha elections 2024: Key factors impacting poll results in Maharashtra

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, April 8 held his first rally in Maharashtra for the Lok Sabha elections 2024. He chose to begin his election campaign in the state from Chandrapur in Vidarbha, which goes for polling in the first phase of the seven-phased general elections. PM Modi as expected reiterated BJP-led NDA's resolve to win over 400 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

For the NDA to achieve its target and especially for the BJP to come into power for the straight third time, the state of Maharashtra plays a crucial role. Maharashtra sends the second highest- 48 parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha. The Mahayuti (the grand alliance of BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP) in Maharashtra has managed to win over 45 seats. However, the drastic political changes, primarily the split of Shiv Sena and NCP, have complexed the political landscape in the state.

With the elections just a few days away, both Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which consists of Congress, Sharad Pawar-led NCP and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, are yet to declare candidates for around 13 Lok Sabha seats, which includes prominent seats like Satara, Nashik, Aurangabad and three seats from Mumbai. Both alliances are either yet to reach seat-sharing formulas or holding their horses as part of their political strategies.

Experts opine the fight in Maharashtra will be tough for both Mahayuti and MVA. "There is a reason the BJP-led Mahayuti is leaving no stone unturned, using muscle and money for every constituency in Maharashtra. The ruling alliance is well aware that on the grassroot their vote percentage is affected. After several coalitions and divisions in the last five years, they are fighting to maintain their 41 seats, let alone crossing 45," said political commentator Ashok Wankhede.

With the Lok Sabha polling dates fast approaching, let's look at some reasons that can significantly affect the results in Maharashtra. From national issues to local weather conditions, there are several factors which can steer the voters.

Voters' confused mindset:

Maharashtra is the only state that has seen maximum political shockers, huge changes in coalition politics and the power of regional parties since the 2019 elections. From the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance contesting and winning elections to Shiv Sena allying with the Congress and NCP, and finally the division of Shiv Sena and NCP, the state has seen it all.

Maharashtra politics always revolved around a saffron alliance of BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP democratic front. However, now there are three parties in both- MVA and Mahayuti, making six parties in total. The complexities in Maharashtra politics have placed the voter in a confused mindset.

Also, with the split of parties, the votes are split. Which faction of Shiv Sena and NCP will get more public support turned into votes is the real test. Commenting on the division of votes, Ashok Wankhede said, "Although Eknath Shinde got with him maximum Shiv Sena MLAs, on-ground support for Uddhav Thackeray is more. Considering the ground reality, the BJP roped in Ajit Pawar to increase the vote bank."

"However, as Ajit Pawar is sidelined by the Pawar family, his concentration has gone to ensure his wife's (Sunetra Pawar) win in Baramati against cousin Supriya Sule rather than campaigning across Maharashtra for Mahayuti," Wankhede said.

Maratha reservation row:

One of the leading political topics from last year has been the Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil's protest demanding reservation for the Maratha community in education and government jobs in the state. All the political parties have claimed their support for the Maratha reservation but without disturbing the existing Other Backward Class (OBC) reservation. Marathas and OBC constitute the major population in the state and both vote banks are equally important for both MVA and Mahayuti.

Senior political journalist Vikrant Joshi said, "Which party fuelled the Maratha reservation protest is a topic of debate. But the fact remains that Manoj Jarange could not deliver the promise of reservation under the OBC quota to his supporters. Both the Maratha community and OBC's votes are likely to go for Mahayuti as Eknath Shinde is in the community's good books and the alliance has a leader like NCP's Chhagan Bhujbal standing firm to not disturb OBC quota, thus ensuring OBC support too in the election."

Water crisis in rural areas:

Several villages in Maharashtra are reeling under severe water shortage and dependent on water tanker supply. "Water crisis in rural areas is an old problem in Maharashtra, which none of the governments were able to resolve. There have also been unseasonal rains lately, destroying crops. The ruling three-party government has announced several schemes for the affected farmers, but how much of the help has reached them? All political parties have played with voters' emotions," Vikrant Joshi said.

Poor voting percentage:

Increasing the voting percentage in India has always been a challenge. A total of 9.2 crore persons, including more than 50,000 centenarians, are eligible to exercise their franchise in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, an increase of 34 lakh from 2019. However, how many of them will turn up at the polling booth is the question. The election commission, district collectors and all concerned authorities are busy organising voter awareness programmes. As it is said, even one vote can change the results.

"The timing of the general elections goes wrong. Considering the rising temperatures and scorching heat, people will be discouraged from going out for a vote. If the Mumbai Metropolitan Region is concerned, where voting will be held on a Monday, people would prefer an extended weekend outing," Joshi said. There are practical reasons people may turn away from casting their votes, directly affecting the results.

The last 15 days matter

Highlighting the fact that whatever the government's performance be, the election campaigns are what affect voting patterns. Joshi said, "Time and again it is proven that it does not matter what the government did in five years. It is the last three months of political campaigns the public remembers. More crucial are the last 15 days before the actual voting day. What promises the politicians make, what tone the poll campaign sets and how it changes a voter's mindset."

Rather than concentrating on issues, the elections will be contested on the face of main leaders- Narendra Modi for the NDA and Rahul Gandhi for the INDIA bloc.

"Even in the Chandrapur rally, Modi concentrated on how problems originated with the Congress. Rather than speaking on local issues, targeting Congress was the agenda. With the existing complexities in Maharashtra's politics, voters are confused as to which party their leader supports," Ashok Wankhede said.

"The candidates will contest on the names of Modi and Amit Shah. The achievements of PM Modi like building the Ram Temple at Ayodhya will colour the election campaigns rather than actual issues," Wankhede said.

Polling in Maharashtra

Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra will be held in five phases on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13 and May 20. The counting of votes will be held on June 4. The state, with its 48 Lok Sabha seats, is the second-largest contributor to the lower house of Parliament after Uttar Pradesh. Known for its political diversity and significant electoral influence, Maharashtra plays a crucial role in shaping national politics.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP emerged as the largest party with 23 seats, followed by the undivided Shiv Sena with 18 seats.