Mumbai: BMC to predict AQI 72 hrs in advance

A thick haze blankets the BKC area. Pic/Kirti Surve Parade

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has decided to follow the Delhi pattern for predicting pollution so that the civic body can take preventive measures at the local level up to 72 hours in advance.

An official working on the project said that the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) designed a dashboard that can predict the possibility of pollution 72 hours in advance. "We have decided to follow this system and IITM will design a dashboard for BMC. After getting predictions, we can suggest preventive measures at the ward level. This will help reduce or fully prevent rising pollution levels," the official said.

The official explained, "IITM can predict pollution status by studying meteorological data, and the emission inventory study is ready. Also, the prediction will depend on the speed, velocity and direction of the wind, temperature, and humidity. If the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Navi Mumbai is high and the wind is blowing towards Mumbai, there is a possibility that AQI levels in Mumbai too will rise, especially if the temperature is lower. Using the IITM system, we can find local areas where AQI will increase."

The estimated cost of the project is around Rs 4.5 crore. "We are planning to complete this project in this financial year," the official said, adding that over the years, more data will be available and the predictions will become more accurate. Data from the Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Station and Emission Inventory (EI) study report will be used for this. "We are thinking of conducting an EI study every six months. Also, we plan to install 72 low-cost sensors for AQI monitoring and the data from these will also be used in the future."

EI studies are a comprehensive analysis that identifies and quantifies pollutants released into the atmosphere from various sources within a specific region and time period, helping understand pollution sources and in forming air quality management strategies. "Our guidelines for dust mitigation for the city are set, but if we get a local level predictions, we can take effective measures before an AQI rise," the official added.
Deputy Municipal Commissioner Rajesh Tamhane confirmed the development.

According to the BMC's Environment Status Report-2024, Chembur and BKC are the most polluted areas of the city. According to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), the annual average level of particulate matter (PM10) is 60 micrograms per cubic metre of air. In Chembur, the average level of PM10 was recorded at around 120 micrograms per cubic metre, while PM2.5 was recorded at 64 micrograms per cubic metre. At BKC, PM10 levels reached 102 micrograms per cubic metre of air, and the PM2.5 level was at 52 micrograms per cubic metre. CPCB standards mention the average level of PM2.5 should be 40 micrograms per cubic metre. The average level of PM10 in the city is 89 micrograms per cubic metre, while average PM2.5 levels are around 46 micrograms per cubic meter.