Mumbai: Polls on hold, stakes sky-high

(From left) Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis with his deputies Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. File pic/Shadab Khan

Most local self-government polls used to be held before the state Assembly elections until their last term recently. These elections, to a mix of urban and rural bodies, gave parties an idea of where they stood in terms of popularity because these polls (except in village panchayat ones) are fought on election symbols. Because of their outcome and strategic importance, the local body polls are called mini-Assembly elections.

It will be the other way around this year. The local body polls, if held anytime in 2025, will find the Mahayuti alliance under pressure to maintain the top position it reached in the recent Assembly elections. The BJP-led combine set a new record in November 2024 by winning 237 out of 288 seats, a massive mandate that should encourage the new government to go for the municipal and district bodies that are currently under the administrator (duly appointed bureaucrat) in the absence of elected representatives for about two to three years.

Legal matter before Supreme Court

The elections could not be held even after the local bodies' term expired because some litigation related to delimitation and reservation are pending before the Supreme Court. The BJP-led state government expects these cases to be expedited because it is prepared to withdraw some of the litigation. As of now, all municipal corporations (29, including two new ones) are being run by the administrators. Like Mumbai, where the municipal commissioner acts as the BMC's administrator, the elections were to be held in February 2022. Similarly, the respective commissioners are running their city bodies elsewhere. In addition, there are 391 municipal bodies of smaller sizes - city councils (nagar parishad) and nagar panchayats. Of these, 280 are governed by the administrators. In rural areas, 26 out of 34 district councils (zilla parishads or ZPs) don't have elected representatives. These ZPs' 289 panchayat samitis (tehsil-level bodies) are also under administrative rule. By February 2025, six more ZPs and 44 panchayat samitis will have their terms over, and switch over to the administrator regime, if the elections are not held.

When it is under an administrator, a local body is directly ruled by the state government. The Shinde government had the longest hold. The CM was also the urban development minister, who controlled the municipal bodies. The BJP had a rural development minister, who controlled the ZPs and panchayat samitis. A lot will depend on who has got these two important portfolios in the Fadnavis government. Even after they have the elected representatives, the ministers concerned and the CM will have a say in the matters related to the urban and rural bodies that actually strengthen the parties in power and weaken the Opposition at the ground level. It is the local bodies that give the parties new leadership that can be fostered and elevated. There have been instances of municipal body chiefs getting elected as MLAs and ministers, and even chief ministers.
BJP single largest in 2016-17

In 2016-17, the BJP, then the single largest party, had claimed the highest number of municipal seats, followed by the Congress, undivided NCP and undivided Shiv Sena. Generally, the local bodies are contested in alliance depending on the wishes of the local workers. Coming elections will be no different. In the 2017 Mumbai elections, the BJP and Sena had contested against each other despite being together in the previous BMC polls and despite being ruling partners in the state government. The BJP proved its decision right when it almost destroyed the Sena's hold on the BMC. The BJP took its numbers from 31 to 82. Sena won 84, just two more than its frenemy. BJP was in a position to poach corporators to install its mayor, but it let Sena run the BMC. The BJP's strategy was to use the 2017 foundation to win the numbers to have its mayor five years later. However, the state politics altered so much since then that the Sena stands separated, with Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde sharing spoils in the latest Assembly elections in Mumbai. The BJP has gained maximum and has set its eyes on installing its mayor in Asia's richest and biggest municipal body. BJP's third partner, Ajit Pawar's NCP, has not much stake in Mumbai. It will be a multi-corner fight if the alliance doesn't happen in the MVA and Mahayuti, not just in Mumbai but also in the rest of Maharashtra.

Local leadership upset

The upcoming elections will be more important in view of party politics. The local leadership has been upset because it has lost an opportunity and precious time. When MVA partners were in power, their cadres expected the government to hold polls. Mahayuti workers felt the same after the MVA fell. Now, it is Fadnavis's turn to try to open the electoral field that had made him a city corporator and mayor at a very young age. The BJP, in particular, has not been able to rehabilitate its local leadership that has its aspirations higher ever since the party came to power again in 2022. Those elected during the BJP's first government have not contested another poll, though they have worked hard for the party in the two Lok Sabha and two Assembly elections between 2019 and 2024. Similar is the case with all other parties. Another thing that is common between all major parties is that their workers and ticket aspirants are worried about the sharing of seats if the alliance happens. The fear is real and serious. No wonder, senior leaders of rival alliances have begun talking about going solo in local body elections. For the Opposition bloc that has been alleging the misuse of electronic voting machines, the local body polls should be an opportunity to establish their claim to popularity.