25 January,2025 09:01 AM IST | Mumbai | Vidya Heble
Uncertainty surrounds the aspirations of countless Indians, students and workforce alike
US President Donald Trump's Executive Order (EO) proposing to cancel "birthright citizenship" for immigrant children born in the US, unless at least one parent is a citizen, has stirred up a hornet's nest. Initial panic among American desis subsided when it became clear the order would not be retroactive, and would come into force in a month's time.
However, a slew of questions arise from here - such as, will the EO affect work visas for Indians (as well as other immigrants), whether students are likely to be impacted, and even whether the EO will come into force at all, considering it involves a Constitutional amendment and has been opposed by several states in the US.
US citizen Som Pushkar, an IT professional who has lived there for 30 years, says, "Birthright citizenship is in the Constitution and I don't know if an executive order can override it."
Pushkar's two children obtained citizenship through the birthright clause (jus soli), before either parent became a citizen. Pushkar, who has been a citizen for 15 years, points out that ending birthright citizenship was something US President Donald Trump had said he would do even while he was on the campaign trail. "Now he has followed through," he says.
During his first term, Trump oversaw a substantial increase in H-1B visa denials and Requests for Evidence (RFEs), leading to heightened uncertainty for high-skilled workers. Trump Administration 2.0 might make the process more rigorous, possibly driving denial rates back up.
Senior policy expert Deepak Maheshwari says the ramifications of the ruling, if it goes through, would be primarily societal in nature. "Children will be affected," he says, though individual situations differ.
With techies being major users of the H-1B visa, this would eventually impact companies employing IT professionals, he says. "Overall the new administration continues to believe in the utility and relevance of H-1B, so the visa situation is unlikely to be affected. It benefits both; it gives the US the skills and it gives Indians jobs."
However, Maheshwari goes on to say, it could be a while before the ruling comes into force, as it has been challenged legally by some 22 states. If it comes into force, it would affect future and prospective emigrants from India, who would then rethink the prospect of a long-term stay in the US.
Vibha Kagzi, founder and CEO of education consultancy ReachIvy.com, says, "Even if this ruling does go through, anyone who graduates through the top universities in the US are considered high human and social capital, and high-value talent. The government and employers will do whatever they can to try and retain this talent."
Moreover, once a company sponsors an H-1B visa, it is evident that it values the talent and expertise of this individual who in turn adds value to the economy of the US. "Hence, if a child is born to this sort of a couple in the US, then the government will try its best to retain this talent. It makes economic sense for the United States to not lose out on this large inflow of foreign education which is a huge inbound revenue from India and thereafter the talent pool that it creates," Kagzi adds.
US Consulate Mumbai spokesperson Brenda Soya says, "The United States remains the top destination for international students, with India leading with a 23 per cent increase over the previous year. Indian students now constitute 29 per cent of the entire international student population in the US."
Social media has been abuzz with personal anecdotes about women who travelled to the US while pregnant, so that their child could be born there and get citizenship automatically. Many say that this ruling will put the brakes on, if not an end to, this sort of manipulation.
Prithwiraj Mukherjee, an associate professor of digital marketing at a university in Ahmedabad, feels a lot of uncertainty has opened up. "Indian H-1B immigrants have no clear path to citizenship today, and wait times of 50-plus years lie ahead. Many at least had children who got birthright US citizenship, but that too has been cancelled," he says.
Mukherjee, who lived in the US for a short period, says he had no desire to emigrate. But it is not so in the case of countless others for whom settling in the US is an end goal in itself.
Nidhi Sehami moved to the US in 2016, and was in the country when Trump got elected the first time around. What happened after, in the next eight years, is a story that's common to many people who have gone to America as students, and then tried to get a job. Sehami, then 24, studied engineering management at St Cloud State University, and in 2018 got an internship and finally a contractual job. "Get a full-time job as a migrant is very hard. So initially, you get jobs on contract where you are paid only 75 per cent, and with the multiple taxes, you end up making very little," says Sehami on call from Hyderabad, her hometown where she returned to last August.
"It's been eight years of going from one job to another - also when you shift from the student visa to H-1B, the taxes are very high. You need to get a new job in six months or else you need to leave the country. So people study more, and go back to the student visa. So then, there is more debt that piles up," she says.
Though the EO has had students worried, more so in the light of many countries already cutting back on intake of students from India and other countries, Kagzi does not feel it is a serious issue yet. "Realistically, at this point for international students planning to study in the US, this development does not directly impact their educational pursuits, but we urge students to stay informed and seek guidance from immigration experts to understand the full impact of this ruling," she says.
Sehami feels that looking back, the only reason she opted to try for the American dream was because her friends were all going, there was a feeling of FOMO, and a feeling that she needed the American stamp to get a better job. "I feel that with Trump back in power, there will be more jobs, but it will be hard to get them and hold them. Taxes are going to be very high - and they change as you change states in the US. It's like living paycheck to paycheck. I would tell younger people today, don't go. It's not worth it. My brother has tried two times and his H-1B has been rejected, and I feel it's for the best."
A full-time employer needs to sponsor you, and Sehami says that the big tech companies like Amazon, Google and Microsoft have started denying sponsorships till the backlog of green card applications is cleared. A study by US-based think tank Cato Institute has revealed that only 3 per cent of applicants are expected to obtain permanent residence in the fiscal year 2024, and there is a backlog of approximately 34.7 million applications.
In 2024, Sehami was working full time at Kyvos Inside in New Jersey, which is a data analytics firm, when they told her they were shutting her division down and outsourcing the job to two people in India. "It was just getting expensive to survive. I had already spent R8-10 lakh just switching between jobs and surviving there for so long. I gave seven rounds of interviews for Amazon, but didn't get the job, so in the end, I decided I had gone through my savings, and came back. Now, I have a good, high-paying job in Hyderabad at S&P Global and I couldn't be happier."
Meenakshi Ahamed, who is a freelance journalist and the author of A Matter of Trust: India-US Relations from Truman to Trump, and Indian Genius: The Meteoric Rise of Indians in America, feels that though Trump does many things that he believes will appeal to his base, he doesn't always deliver. "During his first term, he had threatened to build a wall along the border with Mexico and to get them to pay for it. Mexico ignored him and the wall was only partially built by Trump. This attempt to change the 14th amendment, that has been the bedrock of immigration policy for over a century, has swiftly been countered by lawsuits and a conservative judge has already declared Trump's order unconstitutional."
She does feel that the American Dream will endure, because in many ways it remains a meritocratic society which recognises and rewards hard work and talent. "But, for the next three to four years, it may be harder to enter that race. On a people-to-people basis, things may not change that much."
MilanâÂÂâÂÂâÂÂâ Vaishnav, Director and Senior Fellow, South Asia Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, feels that America's reputation as a "land of opportunity" still persists but the cracks are beginning to show. "And those cracks pre-date the Trump administration. Economic inequality, the sky-high cost of higher education, a dysfunctional health care system - these and other factors are limiting social mobility. Indians continue to thrive in the United States, perhaps because they are so well-educated and oriented toward white collar jobs, on average. But the next few years will really test the strength of US institutions as well as our social fabric."
With inputs from Aastha Atray Banan
34.7 mn
Green Card applications backlogged with the US authorities as of 2024
Source: Cato Institute, US think tank
1.2 mn
Indians, including dependents, are waiting in the first, second and third employment-based green card categories
Source: National Foundation for American Policy analysis of USCIS data
