Indian stocks extend gains; inflation data eyed for fresh cues

Last week, Indian stock indices managed to end with gains on a cumulative basis. Benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices accumulated 0.8-1.0 per cent gains

Indian stock indices extended their gains from the previous session. At the time of writing this report, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were 0.2 per cent higher.

Better-than-expected strength of the US economy, firm foreign fund inflows, and strong GST collections among other macro fundamentals have been supporting Indian stocks consistently over the past fortnight or so, said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

"There are three prominent factors which are driving the ongoing rally in the market: One, better-than-expected strength of the US economy and the increasing confidence that the US will succeed in avoiding a bad recession. This has led to consolidation in the US market. Two, strong buying by FIIs who have been continuous buyers during the last eight trading days resulting in cumulative buying of Rs 13825 crores. Three, fundamental support to the rally from macro indicators such as robust GST collections, improving PMI, high fuel consumption and good credit growth," Vijayakumar said.

Last week, Indian stock indices managed to end with gains on a cumulative basis. Benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices accumulated 0.8-1.0 per cent gains.

India's headline consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation (or retail inflation) has gradually declined from its peak of 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to 5.7 per cent in March 2023 - which is below RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.

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The RBI's monetary policy actions over the past year seem to have reaped dividends in managing inflation.

Fitch Ratings forecasts India's headline inflation to decline, but remain near the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2-6 per cent target band, averaging 5.8 per cent in 2023-24 from 6.7 per cent last year.

Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has managed to steer its inflation trajectory quite well.

Assuming an annual average crude oil price (Indian basket) of USD 85 per barrel and a normal monsoon, CPI (or retail) inflation is projected to moderate to 5.2 per cent for 2023-24 in India as estimated by RBI in its April monetary policy meeting; with Q1 at 5.1 per cent; Q2 at 5.4 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent; and Q4 at 5.2 per cent. 

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