Researchers develop a cutting-edge dengue early warning system to predict outbreaks, addressing climate-driven surges in cases and fatalities.
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A dengue early warning system has been developed, offering a crucial tool to preempt outbreaks and mitigate the disease’s rising threat amidst climate change. Dengue fever, one of the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne diseases globally, is witnessing an alarming surge, closely linked to shifting climate patterns, states a latest study.
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The study led by Sophia Yacob and Roxy Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, projects a 13% increase in dengue-related fatalities by 2030 and a staggering 23–40% rise by 2050 if immediate interventions are not undertaken.
Koll said, “ While this study is based on Pune’s climate and health data, the underlying mechanisms—such as the role of temperature, humidity, and rainfall and there changes in causing dengue—are broadly applicable across India. Mumbai's high population density and urbanization aggravates the risks. We need to prepare an early warning system for Mumbai and for that we need the health data from the region.”
India, contributing nearly a third of global cases, faces an impending public health crisis as new research warns of a significant rise in dengue-related deaths.
Published in Scientific Reports, the research focuses on Pune, a well-documented dengue hotspot. The findings emphasize how rising temperatures, erratic monsoon rainfall, and increasing humidity exacerbate the spread and lethality of dengue. The study, titled “Dengue Dynamics, Predictions, and Future Increase under Changing Monsoon Climate in India,” calls for urgent climate-sensitive health measures to mitigate the looming crisis.
The study is authored by Sophia Yacob, Roxy Mathew Koll, Panini Dasgupta, and Rajib Chattopadhyay from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology - Pune, Raghu Murtugudde and Amir Sapkota from the University of Maryland - USA, Anand Karipot from the University of Pune; Sujata Saunik and Kalpana Baliwant from the Government of Maharashtra, Abhiyant Tiwari from NRDC India, and Revati Phalkey from the University of Nottingham - UK.
Temperature’s role in dengue transmission
The study highlights how the monsoon season’s mean temperature range of 27–35°C in Pune fosters optimal conditions for dengue transmission. These temperatures influence critical mosquito-related factors such as lifespan, egg production, and the virus’s development within mosquitoes. The analysis underscores the need for region-specific climate-dengue assessments, as temperature thresholds and their relationship with other climatic factors vary across locations.
Rainfall patterns and dengue
Rainfall patterns more than total rainfall play a pivotal role in dengue spread. Moderate weekly rainfall (up to 150 mm) significantly increases dengue mortality in Pune, while heavy rains exceeding 150 mm reduce it through the “flushing effect,” which washes away mosquito eggs and larvae. The research reveals that years with low monsoon variability, characterized by fewer active and break phases, coincide with higher dengue cases and fatalities. Conversely, higher monsoon variability is associated with reduced dengue transmission.
India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) already provides extended-range forecasts on monsoon patterns. Leveraging these forecasts could enhance dengue predictions by offering a lead time of 10–30 days, aiding public health responses.
Regional dengue early warning system: 'A Game-Changer'
Existing dengue warning systems in India are rudimentary, focusing only on generic temperature thresholds without considering the complex interplay of rainfall, humidity, and temperature. The new study pioneers a region-specific dengue early warning system that integrates all potential climate-based factors to predict outbreaks over two months in advance with reasonable accuracy. By using observed patterns of temperature, rainfall, and humidity, this model offers policymakers and health authorities a valuable tool to preempt and mitigate outbreaks.
While heavy rains may temporarily disrupt mosquito breeding, the overall increase in warmer days is expected to dominate future dengue trends. The study emphasizes that socio-economic factors, which also influence disease transmission, must be incorporated into future models.
The effectiveness of dengue early warning systems hinges on comprehensive health data collection and sharing. However, significant underreporting of dengue cases in India hinders accurate analysis. One study estimates that actual dengue cases are 282 times higher than the reported figures.
“We developed this early warning system using health data shared by Pune’s health department,” said Koll, she said, “However, similar efforts in other states were hampered by a lack of cooperation.”
Koll emphasized that sharing health data alongside IMD’s meteorological data could enable the creation of city-specific early warning systems for diseases like dengue, malaria, and chikungunya.
States such as Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and West Bengal, which bear a high dengue burden, could greatly benefit from this advanced system. Policymakers can leverage these insights to formulate targeted interventions, allocate resources, and enhance preparedness for climate-sensitive diseases, Koll said.
What Experts say
Koll recounted a personal experience, saying, “In August 2024, my wife was hospitalized in the ICU due to dengue. This personal experience highlighted the urgency of addressing dengue outbreaks. Even as a climate scientist, I saw firsthand how overwhelming the situation can become.”
Sophia Yacob from IITM described the research as “a significant step in understanding how climate impacts health.” She explained that the model could be adapted to other regions, making it a valuable tool for managing diseases like dengue.
Sujata Saunik, Chief Secretary, Government of Maharashtra, highlighted the collaboration, stating, “This partnership exemplifies how scientists, health departments, and governments can work together to improve public health systems and save lives.”
Amir Sapkota from the University of Maryland emphasized, “Our findings lay the foundation for building climate-resilient communities. Anticipating disease threats ahead of time is far more effective than reacting after outbreaks occur.”
Dr. Madhukar Gaikwad, Unit Head of the Medicine Department at JJ Hospital and Medical College, stated, "Dengue, caused by the Aedes mosquito, thrives in stagnant water. Especially in the years following the pandemic, cases of dengue and malaria have risen compared to five to ten years ago. Climate change is undoubtedly a contributing factor to this increase. Rising temperatures and increased rainfall are allowing dengue-carrying mosquitoes to expand their range."
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